By definition, future stories aren't true stories. Since the future hasn't happened yet, it's impossible to say anything totally reliable about it, particularly where human beings are involved. The first step in augmenting the credibility of a future story is to explore whether the length of the causal chain between the situation today and the imagined future can be reduced. The longer the chain of causation, the greater the chance is that one or more of the links will break, as some unexpected development throws all predictions into chaos. For example, Lou Gerstner as head of IBM was most persuasive when he was telling stories about the near future. Here he is in June 1995 talking about the third ...

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