The Making of a Market Guru: Forbes Presents 25 Years of Ken Fisher

Chapter 19. 2002: Triple Bottom Blues

"Financial markets are long-term economic equalizers between competing uses of capital. Stocks versus bonds. Domestic versus foreign. Big versus small. In the long run it all balances out. In the short term the stock market is simply a fatigue-o-meter, measuring which group's sentiment is wearying fastest."

—"Fatigue-O-Meter," March 4, 2002

"Stock prices derive solely from shifts in supply and demand for stocks, nothing else. . . . In the short term, supply is heavily constricted, tied as it is to the regulatory process associated with its creation. In the long term, supply shifts freely and is the prime price-setting force. . . . In the short term, since supply is constricted, it is demand bouncing around that sets prices."

—"Buy Stocks Now," July 8, 2002

In his February 4, 2002 column, Ken summed up the year in a single sentence: "Much is weird this year." And he was right. The 2001 year-end stock market rally was petering out. From September 21, 2001—five trading days after the stock market reopened following the September 11 tragedy—through the end of 2001, the S&P 500 was up nearly 20 percent.^[76] The rally had some believing a new bull market had begun. But stocks rolled over again as 2002 began. Ken started the year with a somewhat positive outlook, suggesting the bear market might bottom sometime in 2002, and the subsequent market rally could result in a positive year for stocks. But by his February 4, 2002 column "2002: Another Down Year," ...