Evidence-based forecasting1

I know of no investor or entrepreneur who has ever seen a forecast that came in exactly on the money. Some forecasts turn out too high, others too low. Forecasting is an inherently difficult task because no one has a perfect crystal ball. The future is inherently uncertain, especially in today’s rapidly changing markets. Consumer wants and needs change, buffeted by the winds of ever-changing macro trends. Competitors come and go. New technologies sweep away old ones.

Some forecasts are based on extensive and expensive research, others on small-scale enquiries, still others on uninformed hunches. Forecasting plays a central role in all kinds of planning and budgeting in all kinds of businesses and organizations. ...

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