The NFL Draft

How “The Experts” Get It Wrong More Often Than Not, Expensively

David J. Berri and Martin B. Schmidt

The Problem with Picking First

You might think that the draft—as a tool to extract money from new talent—would be most successful with respect to the very first picks. After all, the best players should be chosen first, and therefore, teams that hold the rights to the first picks should be reaping the greatest benefit from the draft.

A recent study by Cade Massey and Richard Thaler, though, suggests otherwise. This study examined the surplus value of each drafted player, or the difference between each player’s salary and the economic value of the player’s production if he was allowed to be a free agent. If the draft worked according ...

Get The NFL Draft: How “The Experts” Get It Wrong More Often Than Not, Expensively now with O’Reilly online learning.

O’Reilly members experience live online training, plus books, videos, and digital content from 200+ publishers.