The NFL Draft
How “The Experts” Get It Wrong More Often Than Not, Expensively
David J. Berri and Martin B. Schmidt
The Problem with Picking First
You might think that the draft—as a tool to extract money from new talent—would be most successful with respect to the very first picks. After all, the best players should be chosen first, and therefore, teams that hold the rights to the first picks should be reaping the greatest benefit from the draft.
A recent study by Cade Massey and Richard Thaler, though, suggests otherwise. This study examined the surplus value of each drafted player, or the difference between each player’s salary and the economic value of the player’s production if he was allowed to be a free agent. If the draft worked according ...