The limits to planning and prediction
What is this about and why is it important?
The culture of business values detailed predictions above broad-brush estimates, and likes predictions that enable dependable commitment making. Businesses praise project managers whose results or actuals match their predictions. Project managers who do not predict accurately are seen as poor project managers.
Project managers build plans by determining the activities needed to meet project outcomes. Then they estimate the durations and ordering of the activities, and the resources required. Plans are based on analysis, experience, models, assumptions and, if we are honest, guesses.
Earlier we looked at developing a plan (see p. 39). In this section, I will discuss ...