The Road to Recovery: How and Why Economic Policy Must Change

Foreword

by Martin Wolf

Andrew Smithers is a truly remarkable man. He brings to his analysis of the economy and financial markets a combination of abilities that is, in my experience, unique. Notable in this list are intelligence, eclecticism, pragmatism and independence. Andrew is devoted to the facts, is never impressed by status and possesses both deep knowledge of financial markets and a penetrating understanding of economics. Above all, he has an apparently uncanny – indeed, downright infuriating – tendency to be right.

Yet, in truth, his tendency to be right is not uncanny at all. Andrew is so often right not just because he has great intellectual abilities but because he cares about being right. His record is a triumph of character. He has the abilities of a first-rate academic. But he has never been one. He is, as a result, liberated from what he justly condemns as the “scholasticism” of academic economics.

When I look back on my many discussions with Andrew over the last quarter of a century, I find myself reminded of Bertrand Russell's remark that “Every time I argued with Keynes, I felt that I took my life in my hands and I seldom emerged without feeling something of a fool.” I feel the same way about debates with Andrew. But however foolish Andrew may frequently have made me feel, I know how much I have benefitted from his insights. Alas, I would have gained even more if I had paid his views even more attention than I did.

I first became aware of Andrew's exceptional ...