Chapter 10. Bear Market Hero

Investor: John Navin

Date of Birth: February 16, 1950

Hometown: Boulder, CO

Personal Web Site: John Patric Navin (

Employment: Full-time investor, former radio DJ and stockbroker

Passions/Pursuits: Music, blackjack, meditating, and running

Investment Strategy: Technical analysis, Elliott Wave

Brokerage Accounts: Charles Schwab

Key Strategy Metric: Moving averages, resistance and support levels

Online Haunts:,,,,

Best Pick: Rio Narcea Gold Mines, Up 653 percent

Worst Pick: Scripps, Down 93 percent

Performance Since May 2001: Average annual return of 10 percent versus 1 percent for the S&P 500[44]

A decade ago I used to consider technical analysis or "charting" a fool's game. The idea of looking at historical price and volume patterns and trying to predict the future of a stock or the market didn't make any sense to me. It seemed like a lazy way of approaching securities analysis. Instead of taking the time to actually understand a company and to model out its profit potential, why not skip all the number-crunching and due diligence, and just look at price charts, draw trend lines, and see if you can discern a "head and shoulders" or "double bottom" pattern?

Indeed in the hallways of Forbes magazine technical analysis didn't get much respect. Like other financial publications, we beat the drum for long-term value investing ...

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