Chapter 10. Bear Market Hero
Investor: John Navin
Date of Birth: February 16, 1950
Hometown: Boulder, CO
Personal Web Site: John Patric Navin (
Employment: Full-time investor, former radio DJ and stockbroker
Passions/Pursuits: Music, blackjack, meditating, and running
Investment Strategy: Technical analysis, Elliott Wave
Brokerage Accounts: Charles Schwab
Key Strategy Metric: Moving averages, resistance and support levels
Best Pick: Rio Narcea Gold Mines, Up 653 percent
Worst Pick: Scripps, Down 93 percent
Performance Since May 2001: Average annual return of 10 percent versus 1 percent for the S&P 500
A decade ago I used to consider technical analysis or "charting" a fool's game. The idea of looking at historical price and volume patterns and trying to predict the future of a stock or the market didn't make any sense to me. It seemed like a lazy way of approaching securities analysis. Instead of taking the time to actually understand a company and to model out its profit potential, why not skip all the number-crunching and due diligence, and just look at price charts, draw trend lines, and see if you can discern a "head and shoulders" or "double bottom" pattern?
Indeed in the hallways of Forbes magazine technical analysis didn't get much respect. Like other financial publications, we beat the drum for long-term value investing ...