Time Series Forecasting in Python

2 A naive prediction of the future

This chapter covers

• Defining a baseline model
• Setting a baseline using the mean
• Building a baseline using the mean of the previous window of time
• Creating a baseline using the previous timestep
• Implementing the naive seasonal forecast

In chapter 1 we covered what time series are and how forecasting a time series is different from a traditional regression task. You also learned the necessary steps in building a successful forecasting project, from defining a goal to building a model, deploying it, and updating it as new data is collected. Now you are ready to start forecasting a time series.

You will first learn how to make a naive prediction of the future, which will serve as a baseline. The baseline model ...