CHAPTER 2
Trend Scoring
We always say: Ride to ride another day. We go out there with the attitude that we're going to do it in a way that we can do it again tomorrow.
—Laird Hamilton, world champion big wave surfer
Trends are to the trader what waves are to the surfer. You never see a surfer jump on a board in flat water because he has a gut feeling that a wave will develop. He waits until the wave starts to develop and then positions himself to catch the best part of the wave for the longest ride. However, when the wave starts to crash, he jumps off to get ready for the next wave.
Take particular care to notice what the surfer does and doesn't do. First of all, a new surfer isn't going to ride the big waves of Hawaii's North Shore. He starts with the one- or two-foot waves and moves up as his skills and experience grow. He always waits for the wave to tell him when to start the ride. The wave begins to develop and the surfer's goal is to identify the wave as early as possible by reading the water. He doesn't anticipate where the wave will be at some future time or convince himself that a wave should be where it's not. Once he starts his ride, he stays on for as long as the wave will allow. Eventually, the wave breaks apart and the surfer moves on to the next wave. He doesn't pick a spot near the shore where he thinks the wave should crash and then only jump off at that predetermined location. During the ride, he's constantly watching and feeling the water and making adjustments ...
