But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.
John Maynard Keynes1
The deepening interconnectedness of the world we discussed in the introduction to our exploration of trading economics is a reality we must adapt to and understand in order to pursue long-term and short-term investments that drive markets. What Keynes meant, of course, is that by taking care of the short-term, you take care of the long. For us this means the focus on regular economic indicators will allow better long term decision making, and so better economic outcomes. In that way, proper sober assessment can be done of the investment opportunities available. Indeed, the actions of investors are one of the enablers that are helping to drive the fundamental change that is underway and that was not forced off course by the Great Recession.
In this environment, more analysis of the regular flow of economic indicators will be required in order to help make sense of these rapid and fundamental changes. Big decisions have to be taken in a realistic way, unhindered by incorrect reading of economic data released almost daily that covers all aspects of the economic sphere. But the sheer breadth of these releases and the underlying complexity that they may not convey in the headline release means tools to help to improve one's understanding are required. This is one of those tools. As our analysis shows, the constant flow of data can obscure underlying trends. ...