Throughout this book numerous references are made to various failure probability matrixes. Due to the extensive amount of data, only a subset of the data compiled was presented, but for the serious reader, the raw data tables are presented here for completeness.
Two notes regarding this data first, though. First, although this data is constantly evolving, the pace of that evolution is rather slow, and thus the trend failure rate probabilities presented below should hold true for some period of time. Second, these data points are across all stocks in all sectors for each of the three major indexes (S&P 500, NASDAQ, and AMEX), and thus the sample and population sampled are roughly equal.
For current trend failure probability rates and eventually the inclusion of virtual sector trend probability failure rates, visit us at Technical Analysis Today (www.tatoday.com).
CHAPTER 1: IDENTIFYING AND QUALIFYING TREND PROBABILITIES
In Chapter 1, the first set of probabilities referenced data gathered from January of 2002 through July of 2011 and encompassed both bullish and bearish trends based on trend failures. The following tables were utilized to construct the charts that appeared in the first half of Chapter 1.
Trend Failure Probabilities for Bullish and Bearish Trends