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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods by Piero Baraldi, Roger Flage, Terje Aven, Enrico Zio

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6

Methods of Uncertainty Propagation

Once uncertainty has been represented using the approaches described in the previous chapters, it must be propagated through the models used in the risk assessment.

In this chapter, we illustrate the ideas of uncertainty propagation by introducing a generic model img which receives as input a vector img of img uncertain quantities and provides as output the quantity of interest img, that is,

(6.1) equation

The uncertainty analysis of img requires an assessment of the uncertainties about img, and their propagation through the model g to produce an assessment of the uncertainties concerning img (see Figure 1.6 in Part I). Uncertainty related to the model structure , that is, uncertainty ...

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