Methods of Uncertainty Propagation
Once uncertainty has been represented using the approaches described in the previous chapters, it must be propagated through the models used in the risk assessment.
In this chapter, we illustrate the ideas of uncertainty propagation by introducing a generic model which receives as input a vector of uncertain quantities and provides as output the quantity of interest , that is,
The uncertainty analysis of requires an assessment of the uncertainties about , and their propagation through the model g to produce an assessment of the uncertainties concerning (see Figure 1.6 in Part I). Uncertainty related to the model structure , that is, uncertainty ...