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Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in Structural Reliability Analysis
In this chapter, we consider the problem of uncertainty representation and propagation in the quantification of the reliability of a structure subject to cracking due to fatigue. The application is partly based on Baraldi, Popescu, and Zio (2010b).
8.1 Structural Reliability Analysis
The reliability of a structure is an important issue which needs to be given due attention during all phases of the life cycle of the structure, including design, manufacturing, installation, operation, maintenance, and demolition. For this, mathematical models are developed to describe the evolution of the physical state of the structure. In particular, degradation models are developed to predict the future degradation evolution of an aging structure. These models must describe the stochastic variation of the physical state of the structure under a changing environment (loads, material properties, etc.), while giving due account to the epistemic uncertainty on the model parameters introduced. In this setting, structural reliability analysis requires representing these uncertainties and propagating them to assess the structure failure probability, typically the probability that the structure's physical state exceeds a specified level which defines the failure criterion (Ardillon, 2010).
8.1.1 A Model of Crack Propagation Under Cyclic Fatigue
Crack propagation under cyclic fatigue is a structural degradation process which ...
