12
Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in the Risk Assessment of a Process Plant
The presentation in this chapter is largely taken from Aven and Kvaløy (2002).
12.1 Introduction
In this chapter we use a simple risk analysis example as a starting point for a discussion on how to consider a Bayesian approach to risk analysis and to search for practical solutions. We primarily have in mind standard situations where the risk analysis is used in a decision-making context, for example, in the planning phase of a project, and where we have some relevant background information.
12.2 Case Description
We consider a process plant on an offshore oil and gas platform. As part of the risk analysis of the plant, a separate study is to be carried out of the risk associated with the operation of a control room placed in the compressor module. Two people operate the control room. The purpose of the study is to assess the risk to the operators as a result of possible fires and explosions in the module, and to evaluate the effect of implementing risk-reducing measures. Based on this study, a decision will be made on whether to move the control room out of the module or to implement some other risk-reducing measures. The risk is currently considered to be too high, but management is not sure what the best overall arrangement is, taking into account both safety and economy. It is therefore decided to conduct a risk analysis to support the decision making. To simplify matters, suppose the analysis ...
