Book description
Praise for the First Edition
"...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty."
—Journal of Applied Statistics
The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.
Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the goto guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including:
A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability
A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession
A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability
Applications of the book's thesis to statistics
A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability
Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.
Table of contents
 Cover
 Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
 Title Page
 Copyright
 Preface
 Prologue
 Chapter 1: Uncertainty
 Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions
 Chapter 3: Probability
 Chapter 4: Two Events
 Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability
 Chapter 6: Bayes Rule
 Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty
 Chapter 8: Three Events

Chapter 9: Variation
 9.1 Variation and Uncertainty
 9.2 Binomial Distribution
 9.3 Expectation
 9.4 Poisson Distribution
 9.5 Spread
 9.6 Variability as an Experimental Tool
 9.7 Probability and Chance
 9.8 Pictorial Representation
 9.9 Probability Densities
 9.10 The Normal Distribution
 9.11 Variation as a Natural Phenomenon
 9.12 Ellsberg's Paradox

Chapter 10: Decision Analysis
 10.1 Beliefs and Actions
 10.2 Comparison of Consequences
 10.3 Medical Example
 10.4 Maximization of Expected Utility
 10.5 More on Utility
 10.6 Some Complications
 10.7 Reason and Emotion
 10.8 Numeracy
 10.9 Expected Utility
 10.10 Decision Trees
 10.11 The Art and Science of Decision Analysis
 10.12 Further Complications
 10.13 Combination of Features
 10.14 Legal Applications
 Chapter 11: Science
 Chapter 12: Examples
 Chapter 13: Probability Assessment
 Chapter 14: Statistics
 Epilogue
 Subject Index
 Index of Examples
 Index of Notations
Product information
 Title: Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition
 Author(s):
 Release date: December 2013
 Publisher(s): Wiley
 ISBN: 9781118650127
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