Book description
A must-read book for investors who prefer to pick stocks based on cash flow facts, not on media hype and fiction
How to Pick a Stock is written for the contrarian investor who wants an investing method that is based on cash flow facts, not on media hype and speculative impulse. This book combines an accessible presentation of a contrarian investment model and the ValuFocus tool that offers a highly studious, detailed explanation of understanding a company's true intrinsic value.
If you can calculate a company's intrinsic value on the basis of knowing if the market is currently under, fairly, or over pricing its stock, then it is possible to invest wisely in the stock market. Investors who want to buy undervalued stocks, or sell (short) overvalued ones will find this book immensely useful. The ValuFocus investing tool calculates the intrinsic value of every company in their database automatically. Thus, an individual investor can become an "A" student of a modeling process, or can go right ahead in using this tool to pick stocks and manage their own portfolio. Additionally, this book helps to develop an enhanced framework to fundamental equity valuation.
Contains the ValuFocus tool for calculating the intrinsic value of every company in the LCRT Nucleus database
Offers specific and innovative valuation techniques of practicing professionals for individuals to use in picking stocks long-term
Highlights the most state-of-the-art approaches to unconventional stock-picking for investors and corporate finance professionals
Offering encouragement to individual investors by outlining a model that delivers satisfying returns, How to Pick a Stock is especially useful for those who are patient and believe in longer-term investing horizons.
Table of contents
- Cover
- Series Page
- Title Page
- Copyright
- Dedication
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Section One: The LCRT Investment Process
- Section Two: A Brief History of Investing and Modeling
-
Section Three: Brief Discussions of Various Investing Methods
- Chapter 9: Do Stocks Have Intrinsic Value?
-
Chapter 10: The Pros and Cons of Various Methods and Models
- Why Price Level Matters
- Why Use Analysts' Traditional Cash Flow Forecasts. Why Not.
- Why Use Dividends to Value Stocks. Why Not.
- Why Use the Simplest Model, EBITDA. Why Not.
- Why Use Earnings. Why Not.
- Why Use Price Level from Regression Analysis. Why Not.
- Why Use Net Free Cash Flow. Why Not.
- Why Use Residual Income or EVA.® Why Not.
- Why Use Cash Flow ROI, CFROI,® Economic Cash Margin, or Cash Economic Return. Why Not.
- Chapter 11: Suppose You Love Your Current DCF Model
-
Section Four: Explaining LCRT's Conceptual Framework in Detail
-
Chapter 12: Our Approach
- Differences between Intrinsic Value and Market Value Approaches
- Explaining Value
- Attacking the Old Ways
- Modeling on Economic Fundamentals, Not Accounting Mumbo-Jumbo
- The Intricacies of the Price Formation Process
- The Foundation is Intrinsic Value
- We're Fighting Standard Practices, but We Can Win
- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 13: Focusing on Price Formation
- Chapter 14: Our Automated DCF Model—The Better Model
- Chapter 15: Getting to Know Our LCRT Model
-
Chapter 16: Digging Deeper into the LCRT Model
- Exponential Fading of both Cash Economic Return and Growth Rate
- Certainty-Equivalent Value and the Use of the Area under a Curve
- Dealing with Debt Leverage
- Looking at the Discount Rate Again
- Inflation Adjustments Revisited
- Importance of Accuracy
- Calculating Bounded Rationality (Rawley Ranges6)
- Market Sentiment and Micro and Macro Economic Drivers
- Improving the Model with Your Insights and Analyst Forecasting
- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 17: Putting Our Valuation Proposition into Perspective
-
Chapter 12: Our Approach
-
Section Five: How to Make Investment Decisions with ValuFocus
-
Chapter 18: ValuFocus—The Key Tool for Investing in Stocks
- The Components of ValuFocus
- The Relative Wealth Chart: Cash Economic Return, Growth, and Stock Performance
- Rawley Ranges of Bounded Rationality
- EPS and Sales Overrides
- Analyzing Hewlett-Packard
- Determining the Accuracy of the Value Calculations
- Using the Value Chart
- Earnings Results Can Be Misleading
- The Market Often is Slow to React to Value Improvements by Management
- Picking the Right Model Version
- Contrasting Hewlett-Packard with Coca-Cola
- Neither Coke nor Pepsi
- Incorporating Revenue and EPS Forecasts
- Basic Purpose: Predict Future Stock Price
- Taking Advantage of the Flexibility of ValuFocus
- The Importance of Fade Rates to Intrinsic Valuation
- Continuing Debate: Determining the Right Discount Rate Created from Long-Term Growth Rates
- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 19: Managing Your Stock Portfolio
- Chapter 20: Advanced Portfolio Concepts
- Chapter 21: What If You Don't Want to Employ ValuFocus
- Chapter 22: Always Going Forward
- Chapter 23: It Is Time to Get Started
-
Chapter 18: ValuFocus—The Key Tool for Investing in Stocks
- Section Six: Advanced Topics for Practicing Professionals
-
Section Seven: Advanced Topics for Academics
-
Chapter 27: Another Tour through Our LCRT Model
- Description of the LCRT Model
- Constructing the Model
- Basic Components of the Model
- Dealing with the Many Assumptions
- The Best of Both: Explaining Our Fade Process in a Single-Period Method
- Fade and Model Accuracy
- Starting with a Baseline Model
- Importance of Understanding Economic Comparables
- The Difference between Net Free Cash Flow versus Cash Economic Return
- Comparing Conventional and LCRT Models
- Validating the Model: The Proof is in the Comparison
- Calculation of Tracking Errors
- Focusing on Cash Economic Return
- Calculating and Delving into Cash Economic Return
- Understanding the Growth Rate
- Arriving at the Discount Rate for a Third Time
- Summing Up
- Key Takeaways
-
Chapter 28: Incorporating Risk into Our Model
- Incorporating Risk and Fade into Our LCRT Model
- How Risk Modeling for Stock Selection Has Evolved
- Managing Risk in Our LCRT Modeling
- Looking at Technical Analysis and Ranges of Bounded Rationality Again
- Measuring the Extent of Over- and Undervaluation
- Modeling the Dispersion of Stock Price
- Applying Risk in Our Model
- Key Takeaways
- Chapter 29: Producing Lower Fat-Tailed Risk with Higher Returns
- Chapter 30: Comparing Our Model against Three Popular DDMs
- Chapter 31: Suggestions for Additional Academic Research
-
Chapter 27: Another Tour through Our LCRT Model
- Epilogue—Key Takeaways
- About the Authors
- Index
Product information
- Title: ValuFocus Investing: A Cash-Loving Contrarian Way to Invest in Stocks
- Author(s):
- Release date: October 2012
- Publisher(s): Wiley
- ISBN: 9781118250075
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