Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security, 4 Volume Set

USING RISK ANALYSIS TO INFORM INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

HENRY H. WILLIS

RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

1 INTRODUCTION

The goal of intelligence is to produce guidance on the basis of available information within a time frame that allows for purposeful action. In efforts to combat terrorism, actionable guidance could come in many forms.

Sometimes guidance is needed to shape strategy. For example,

• the federal government must decide whether to maintain stockpiles to enhance emergency preparedness, or
• state and local governments must choose for which scenarios to develop response plans and train.

Sometimes guidance is needed to inform operational decisions. For example,

• if the federal government decides to use stockpiles, it must decide what to put in them and how to preposition them; or
• airports must decide how to deploy technologies and modify operations to enhance security.

Sometimes the required guidance is on a tactical level. For example,

• law enforcement must know when to deploy additional surveillance around a building or for an event;
• law enforcement is interested in who may be planning an attack; or
• critical infrastructure owners and operators need to know when greater security is required.

All of these examples require different information, but have one thing in common. They all require that the information be appropriate for the intended use.

The concept of the intelligence cycle provides a structure to the process of producing this guidance. The intelligence ...