Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security, 4 Volume Set

TERRORISM RISK

GORDON WOO

Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom

1 SCIENTIFIC OVERVIEW

Einstein remarked that nature is subtle, but not malicious. There is no universal definition of terrorism, but all such acts are recognized as being malicious. Also, not all terrorist campaigns are deadly and enduring, but these are the words used by the director general of the British security service, Manningham-Buller, [1] to categorize the global Jihadi threat, at a time when the MI5 perceived Britain to be Al Qaeda's prime target [2].

The purpose of this article is to describe methods for modeling this source of terrorism risk, and to identify research directions, especially in analysis on a global scale. In the latter regard, aviation and maritime risks are given prominence, because of their significance in border protection. Skeptics of terrorism risk modeling may perceive terrorism to be simply a Manichaean struggle between good and evil, or imagine that terrorists are stupid and crazy. On the contrary, in reality, capable terrorists are both rational and intelligent. Terrorists have to be intelligent in order to make an impact in asymmetric warfare. Atwan [3] has warned the West not to underestimate the intellectual prowess of the Al Qaeda leadership. Osama bin Laden honored Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the 9/11 mastermind, with the title “mukhtar”, meaning “the brain” [4]. Indeed, it may be argued that the most powerful biological weapon in the terrorist's arsenal is not any deadly ...