Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security, 4 Volume Set

TERRORIST THREAT ANALYSIS

JACK F. WILLIAMS

Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia

1 INTRODUCTION

Threat analysis is the art of wasting information, that is, the art of peeling away layers of irrelevant information, incorrect information, and disinformation, in order to expose a state or states of relevant and credible information related to a question of interest to the client. Analysts rarely have too little information to form an opinion. Rather, the analyst is often inundated with information culled from classified sources, unclassified but private or sensitive sources, or open sources [1]. After all, there are two ways in which to hide a needle: in a haystack or in a stack of needles. Threat assessment more closely resembles the latter task. Threat analysis is a nuanced and complex inquiry. Central to its understanding is that the most relevant threat information is usually in the hands of the adversary [2]. Thus, we are constantly guessing about threat, and our adversary is constantly guessing about how we are guessing about threat. In order to understand threat, conventional wisdom segregated threat into two components: (i) capability and (ii) intent [3]. Thus, an analyst could study an adversary's prior attack events, training activity, and the like to ascertain the capability to undertake and carry out an attack. Additionally, an analyst could study an adversary's expressed or implied intent regarding specific targets and operational modes. Synthesizing the two components, ...