“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
—Napoleon Bonaparte (1769–1821)
About ten years ago, I was teaching a short course on forecasting that was part of a broader “mini-MBA” executive education course for a group of middle managers in one of America’s largest corporations. We ran this course every four to six weeks for over two years and thus saw many managers involved in operations for this company.
I started the day, almost by accident the first time, by asking how many in the room had to do formal forecasting as at least part of their job. Typically about 70 percent of the class would raise their hands. I then asked how many used quantitative methods such as ...