book

Making Futures Work

Name: Making Futures Work
Author: Phil Balagtas
ISBN: 9781098148904

by Phil Balagtas

June 2024

Beginner

438 pages

11h 33m

English

O'Reilly Media, Inc.

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Includes

Quizzes

Foreword
Preface
Who This Book Is ForFormat of the BookMethodsStories from the FieldTerminologyO’Reilly Online LearningHow to Contact UsAcknowledgments
1. A Fascination with the Future
Survival of the FittestMeteorologyMapping the Unknown Imagining the FutureIn Closing
2. A Primer on Process and Approach
Stage 0: Preparing for Futures WorkUnderstanding Your AudienceThe Futures MindsetFraming the ProblemFraming the Project Stage 1: Strategic ForesightTrends and Futures IntelligenceAnalyzing TrendsScenarios and ImplicationsStage 2: Designing FuturesTypes of Futures DesignDesigning the Ideation WorkshopStage 3: Designing StrategyPlanning for StrategyMeasuring SuccessIntegrating and Advocating for Futures in an Organization
Stage 0. Preparing for Futures Work
3. Understanding Your Audience
The DiagnosticSituational AwarenessWhy Does Your Audience Want to Look into the Future, and What Are Their Goals?What Kind of Project Will Futures Be Applied To?How Are They Doing Short- and Long-Term Strategies? And Who Is in Charge of That Function Today?What Has or Hasn’t Worked in the Past? How Much Do They Know About Futures Thinking? Who Are Your Potential Allies or Skeptics? What or Who Are the Potential Barriers or Threats to the Success of the Project?How Open Is the Organization to Change, Innovation, or Wild Ideas?What Are the Vocabulary and Artifacts They Are Using for Strategy Today?How Do They Think About the Future Today?Methods for Situational AwarenessSailboat ExerciseSWOT PremortemCanvasesCausal Layered AnalysisIn Closing
4. The Futures Mindset
A Mindset and an AttitudeExplain the Characteristics of a FuturistThe Future Is Always VUCAThe Futures ConeAnalogies of a JourneyRecognize and Embrace Fears and FailuresThe Futures TriangleThe Weight of the PastThe Pull of the FutureThe Push of the PresentShow Relevant and Appropriate ExamplesIn Closing
5. Framing the Problem
Focusing Your ResearchThe Focal IssueTime HorizonGeography/RegionStakeholdersDemographics/Population SegmentDomain MapsProblem Framing CanvasesIn Closing
6. Framing the Project
Project LogisticsMap Out the Project Timeline and BudgetPlan Your Key Activities Secure Your Allies and Champions Align on the DeliverablesSet Up Workspaces, Repositories, and Communication PreferencesDetermine Process Success MetricsOrganizing Your TeamProduct or Project ManagerDesignersStrategists and AnalystsTrend Researchers/AnalystsResearchersDomain ExpertsMarketing and CommunicationsMembers Versus Collaborators Versus AlliesIn Closing
Stage 1. Strategic Foresight

7. Fundamentals of Foresight
Strategic ForesightWorld BuildingHorizon ScanningHistorical AnalysisBill Sharpe’s Three HorizonsFutures IntelligenceUsing STEEP as a Multivariate LensTrends, Drivers, and SignalsPrioritizing Trends and Other Futures IntelligenceProbability Versus Impact MatrixIn Closing
8. World Building with Scenarios
Scenario Formats Narratives Illustrated Images and ScenesImmersive and Interactive ExperiencesJim Dator’s Scenario ArchetypesThe Axes of UncertaintyFuture PersonasImplication MappingSequencing MethodsIn Closing
Stage 2. Designing Futures
9. Designing Futures
Speculative DesignTypes and Formats of Futures DesignCritical DesignDesign FictionScience Fiction PrototypingSpeculative Design for Discourse and StrategyUsing Speculative Design for Provocation, Discourse, Critique, or DebateUsing Speculative Design for StrategyPrototyping the Future TodayIn Closing
10. Designing the Ideation Workshop
Preparing for the WorkshopCollect and Prepare Your Research Artifacts for IdeationIdentify Who Will Be Participating and Prepare Them for the SessionDesign the Ideation Experience (Selecting the Methods)Ideation MethodsRapid IdeationPromptsNarrative-Based PromptsHeadlines and Stories from the FutureImmersive ExperiencesUsing Illustrations for Future VisioningUsing Generative AI Tools for Future VisioningIn Closing
Stage 3. Designing Strategy
11. Strategy
Preparing for StrategyPlanning for the ActivitiesTry to Use What Is Already in Place to Measure SuccessDetermine Whether New Metrics Are NecessaryInvite the Appropriate StakeholdersChoose the Frameworks or Methods You’ll Use for PlanningBackcasting Long-Term, Medium-Term, and Short-Term PlanningMcKinsey’s Three HorizonsJump-Starting InnovationMeasuring SuccessInnovation AccountingIndicator MonitoringImplementation and DeliveryIn Closing
12. Integrating Futures into Your Organization
From the InsideYou’ll Be the First to Introduce Futures to Your Team or OrganizationYou’ve Established Some Support Within Your Group or Team and Want to Introduce Futures to Other Groups Within the OrganizationYou’re Hired to Lead a Team or to Be Part of a Team That Is or Will Be Intentionally Practicing FuturesA Strategic Function or Business Unit Already Exists That May or May Not Use Futures, and You Would Like to Collaborate or Introduce It to ThemFrom the OutsideYou Are Hired Specifically to Use Futures on a ProjectYou’re Hired to Train an Organization or TeamAn Organization Is Curious About Futures and Is Asking You to Introduce the TopicWhere and Why Futures Succeeds or FailsHow Futures Fail (Collapse Scenarios) How Futures Succeeds (Transformational Scenarios)In Closing
Afterword
Next Steps: Continuing Your JourneyApply Futures Thinking to Your Own LifeComplementary ApproachesNew Responsibilities
Glossary
Index
About the Author

Overview

Learn how to get started with Futures Thinking. With this practical guide, Phil Balagtas, founder of the Design Futures Initiative and the global Speculative Futures network, shows you how designers and futurists have made futures work at companies such as Atari, IBM, Apple, Disney, Autodesk, Lufthansa, and McKinsey & Company.

This book demystifies the process of Futures Thinking into a language that's practical and useful for both designers and strategists. You'll learn about Strategic Foresight for using ideas about the future to anticipate and prepare for change; explore Speculative Design to deal with the relationship between science, technology, and humans; and Design Fiction to explore and critique possible futures.

Balagtas also shares stories from his journey to build a global community and describes how he works with clients to reshape the futures vocabulary. With this guide, you'll learn how to:

Prepare your client, team, and/or audience for futures
Facilitate and work with the fundamental methods and frameworks
Gain advocacy and support within your organization
Provide measurable value from the process and outcomes
Build a futures culture and team
Sustain a culture and support system beyond projects

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