book

A Decade of Delusions: From Speculative Contagion to the Great Recession

by Frank K. Martin, John C. Bogle

May 2011

Intermediate to advanced

449 pages

13h 28m

English

Wiley

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Cover
Contents
Title
Copyright
Dedication
Foreword
Preface
Chapter 1 : Lead Us Not into Temptation
May Reason PrevailPatience and PersistenceThe Dean of Wall Street RevisitedThe Investor’s DilemmaIt’s a Numbers GameThe Supremacy of Earnings“Stealth Compensation”Conclusion
Chapter 2 : Techno Babble, Techno Bubble
A Tale of Two MarketsBack to the Future?Warren Buffett on the Stock MarketIs the Internet the Answer?What’s a Long-Term Investor to Do?Investment Redefined
Chapter 3 : “Pop!!”.com
Risk: No Longer an AfterthoughtInvestment Strategy: Is It Time for Technology?Is There a Snowball Rolling Our Way, Gathering Mass and Speed?The Art/Science of Managing RiskBaby Boomers: Whither Goest Thou?The Internet and IPO FrenzyFool’s GoldGoliaths Slain

Chapter 4 : Swimming against the Current
Prelude to Our Investment “Strategy”Interest Rates: It Had Better Be Uphill from HereThe Power of Popular DelusionsThe Mind of CrowdsInvestment Consultants: The Great Middleman Myth
Chapter 5 : The “Greenspan Put”. . . Again
Investment StrategyThe ReckoningSober in the MorningMicro versus MacroThe Margin-of-Safety ParadoxWaiting Patiently for Those Hanging Curves
Chapter 6 : Only Fools Rush In
The Rogues Gallery, 2003 VintageMaking Progress in the Post-Bubble EnvironmentHow Did We Get Here in the First Place?The Apogee of the Mutual-Fund BoomThe Great Abdication of Fiduciary Responsibility: The Defined-Contribution PlanWhere the Buck Really Stops
Chapter 7 : Expanding Concern: A Bigger Bubble?
Maybe the Markets Are Not Random?A Short History of Financial EuphoriaFully Deluded Earnings: Penance (?) in the Cuff-Links CoolerRun for the Roses: Of Pawns, Guinea Pigs . . . and “Retail Investors”“Swing, You Bum!”Marathon Endurance
Chapter 8 : What History Teaches
Free Markets: Popular Delusions and the Madness of CrowdsAspiring to Rationality by Overcoming Heuristic BiasesToday Is Not Tomorrow: Cycles and Differing “Opportunity Sets”Inverting the Traditional High-Risk/High-Return ParadigmThe Inevitability of Regression to the MeanThere Are No Called Strikes in the Investment BallgameFocus on the ImportantThe Malevolent Mathematical Mystery of Modern Money Management (a.k.a. MPT)The Absurdity of the Collective Wisdom of Individual IrrationalityDiversification and the Myth of Safety in NumbersThe New-Era Error
Chapter 9 : Contagious Speculation
The Means to the EndThe Perfect Storm? Viewing the Vista through the Lens of HistoryThe Blossoming of the Financial Economy: The Cataclysm in the Creation of CreditBubbles Are Indigenous to the Financial EconomyIf Housing Prices Roll OverA Remarkable Story of Risk Management—Run AmokThe Perfect Storm ReduxCapitalism: When “Financial” Overwhelms “Commercial”Minsky: A Prequel?The Evolving History of Economics and Finance: Reflections
Chapter 10 : The Tipping Point
Excerpt from Quarterly Capital Markets Review, July 2007Draft of Letter to MCM Clients, July 2007Quarterly Capital Markets Review, October 2007: “What’s Up, Doc?”Cyclical or Secular? The Current Crisis in the Larger Context of Cause and Effect—Connecting the Dots through TimeThe Misalignment of Incentives and the Opaque World of High FinanceEdging toward the PrecipiceThe “Simple” Question Why?An Early Epitaph for the First Decade of the New MillenniumCredit-Default Swap Alchemy: Transmuting Junk into GoldCounterparty Risk
Chapter 11 : The End or the Beginning?
Origins of a Crisis: Decoupling Risk and ReturnThe Question on Which the Future of Investment HangsThe Stockdale Paradox: What Do Survivors Have in Common?Know ThyselfHarsh Realities and the Snowball EffectThe Future of Risk AversionPrice Is What You Pay, Value Is What You GetThe Lost DecadeThe Most Powerful Force in the UniverseValue Investors: A Rare BreedRisk—Once Again a Four-Letter Word?Analysis and Intuition: The Yin and Yang
Epilogue “This Time Is Different”
Index

Content preview from A Decade of Delusions: From Speculative Contagion to the Great Recession

Contents

Foreword

Preface

Chapter 1 : Lead Us Not into Temptation

May Reason Prevail

Patience and Persistence

The Dean of Wall Street Revisited

The Investor’s Dilemma

It’s a Numbers Game

The Supremacy of Earnings

“Stealth Compensation”

Conclusion

Chapter 2 : Techno Babble, Techno Bubble

A Tale of Two Markets

Back to the Future?

Warren Buffett on the Stock Market

Is the Internet the Answer?

What’s a Long-Term Investor to Do?

Investment Redefined

Chapter 3 : “Pop!!”.com

Risk: No Longer an Afterthought

Investment Strategy: Is It Time for Technology?

Is There a Snowball Rolling Our Way, Gathering Mass and Speed?

The Art/Science of Managing Risk

Baby Boomers: Whither Goest Thou?

The Internet and IPO Frenzy

Fool’s Gold

Goliaths Slain

Chapter 4 : Swimming against the Current

Prelude to Our Investment “Strategy”

Interest Rates: It Had Better Be Uphill from Here

The Power of Popular Delusions

The Mind of Crowds

Investment Consultants: The Great Middleman Myth

Chapter 5 : The “Greenspan Put”. . . Again

The Margin-of-Safety Paradox

Waiting Patiently for Those Hanging Curves

Chapter 6 : Only Fools Rush In

The Rogues Gallery, 2003 Vintage

Making Progress in the Post-Bubble Environment

How Did We Get Here in the First Place?

The Apogee of the Mutual-Fund Boom

The Great Abdication of Fiduciary Responsibility: The Defined-Contribution Plan

Where the Buck Really Stops

Chapter 7 : Expanding Concern: A Bigger Bubble?

Maybe ...

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A Decade of Delusions: From Speculative Contagion to the Great Recession

by Frank K. Martin, John C. Bogle

Become an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
and much more.