12. Expectations, Modeling, and Scenarios
What’s in this chapter:
• How to drive revenue in a simple model
• How to factor EBITDA and free cash flow generation into a model
• How to build out debt and interest expense
• How to factor in debt refinancing
• Simple scenario analysis
The information presented in this book so far has all been backward-looking. An analyst also wants to try creating an idea of what the company might look like going forward.
The analyst can build a single model or a series of scenarios of how a company might perform going forward. As with most forecasting, this involves a certain amount of extrapolation from past performance and expectations about what the general economy may be like, as well as what competitors and ...