Being Right or Making Money, 3rd Edition

CHAPTER 6 The Aging World: Economic and Market Implications

ALEJANDRA GRINDAL

Global Population View

Rapid world population growth has been credited to the Industrial Revolution. In the early nineteenth century Thomas Malthus, the economist and demographer, predicted that massive population growth would result in a dystopian society. He concluded that food and resources would not be able to keep up with an expanding population, resulting in famine and conflict. Some 200 years later the population has grown by seven times and standards of living have increased dramatically due to advances in technology and productivity. However, current and future generations face new challenges. The world's population is growing at a slower rate, but it's getting much older.

Population Growth Slowing

The world is expected to have over 9 billion people by 2050, versus the 7.1 billion it had in 2013, according to U.S. Census Bureau research. But while the global population jumped by roughly 90 percent between 1970 and 2013, it is forecast to only rise by a little over a third over the next 40 years.

Much of the growth is projected to come from emerging and frontier economies. Some of the fastest gains will come from the Middle East and South Asia. Populations are also forecast to climb in Latin America. Developed countries' populations are expected to increase as well, but by a much smaller 4.5 percent. Among developed economies, populations are expected to expand in the United States, Canada, ...