Business Forecasting

Preface

Anthologies are only as good as the material compiled, and 2001 saw publication of a seminal anthology in the forecasting field, J. Scott Armstrong’s Principles of Forecasting. That broad collection, along with the Armstrong and Kesten Green website www.forecastingprinciples.com, has been a standard reference for academics, forecasting software developers, and a subset of forecasting practitioners. And yet, the principles and evidence behind them remain largely unpracticed by the great majority of business forecasters.

Now, in 2015, the editors of this volume sought to assemble a mix of the most interesting, important, and influential authors and their writings in applied forecasting since 2001. Our objective was to provide material that is both thought-provoking and of great practical value to everyone involved in the business forecasting function. Our intended audience includes forecast analysts, demand planners, and other participants in the forecasting process, as well as the managers and executives overseeing the process and utilizing the forecasts produced.

Several articles highlight findings of recent research, and many reveal areas still subject to discussion and dispute. The common message, however, is that enlightened forecasting management (not just fancy new algorithms) may be the best way to improve forecasting practice.

This book could be subtitled: What Management Must Know about Forecasting. Forecasting is an inherently politicized process within organizations, ...