4Developing a Takeover Prediction Model: The European Case

The conclusions reached through this first exploratory study are taken into account in the implementation of the second empirical study, which aims to develop a takeover prediction model. This chapter examines the characteristics of European takeover targets, to highlight the implicit motivations of the acquirer and eventually develop a powerful model to predict takeover targets. Variables that have not yet been taken into account in previous studies will be tested: a variable measuring value creation by target and another measuring the growth options. This study stands out, in addition to considering two new predictor variables, because of the defined study period (1996–2007), which covers the last two M&A waves and concerns a virgin market in terms of empirical studies, Europe. To our knowledge, there is only one study by [BRA 09] that examines the economic and financial characteristics of European takeover targets.

This chapter is organized as follows: section 4.1 presents the general framework of the empirical study, namely the formulation of hypotheses, measurement of variables, a detailed description of the sample, the different methodologies previously applied and used in this study. Section 4.2 provides the results of quantitative data analyses to test previously defined hypotheses and to develop a European takeover prediction model.

4.1. Empirical analysis: hypotheses, sample selection, and statistical methodology ...

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