Chapter 2. Ingesting Data into the Cloud
In Chapter 1, we explored the idea of deciding whether to cancel a meeting in a data-driven way. We decided on a probabilistic decision criterion, to cancel the meeting with a client if the likelihood of the flight arriving within 15 minutes of the scheduled arrival time was less than 70%. To model the arrival delay given a variety of attributes about the flight, we need historical data that covers a large number of flights. Historical data that includes this information from 1987 onward is available from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). One of the reasons that the government captures this data is to monitor the fraction of flights by a carrier that are on-time (defined as flights that arrive less than 15 minutes late), so as to be able to hold airlines accountable.1 Because the key use case is to compute on-time performance, the dataset that captures flight delays is called Airline On-time Performance Data. That’s the dataset we will use in this book.
Airline On-Time Performance Data
For the past 30 years, all major US air carriers2 have been required to file statistics about each of their domestic flights with the BTS. The data they are required to file includes the scheduled departure and arrival times as well as the actual departure and arrival times. From the scheduled and actual arrival times, the arrival delay associated with each flight can be calculated. Therefore, this dataset can give us the true value or “label” ...