Book description
Emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management
Featuring a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems.
Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management also features:
Theoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management
Practical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes
End-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills
A supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets
An excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics.
Note: The ebook version does not provide access to the companion files.
Table of contents
- Cover
- Title Page
- Copyright
- Dedication
- Preface
-
Chapter 1: Introduction to Engineering Decision Making
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 Decision Making in Engineering Practice
- 1.3 Decision Making and Optimization
- 1.4 Decision Making and Problem Solving
- 1.5 Decision Making and Risk Management
- 1.6 Problems in Decision Making
- 1.7 The Value of Improving Decision Making
- 1.8 Perspectives on Decision Making
- Exercises
- References
- Chapter 2: Decision-Making Fundamentals
- Chapter 3: Multicriteria Decision Making
- Chapter 4: Group Decision Making
-
Chapter 5: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
- 5.1 Types of Uncertainties
- 5.2 Assessing a Subjective Probability
- 5.3 Imprecise Probabilities
- 5.4 Cumulative Risk Profile and Dominance
- 5.5 Decision Trees: Modeling
- 5.6 Decision Trees: Determining Expected Values
- 5.7 Sequential Decision Making
- 5.8 Modeling Risk Aversion
- 5.9 Robustness
- 5.10 Uncertainty Propagation: Sensitivity Analysis
- 5.11 Uncertainty Propagation: Method of Moments
- 5.12 Uncertainty Propagation: Monte Carlo Simulation
- Exercises
- References
- Chapter 6: Game Theory
-
Chapter 7: Decision-Making Processes
- 7.1 Decision-Making Contexts
- 7.2 Technical Knowledge and Problem Consensus
- 7.3 Optimization: Search and Evaluation
- 7.4 Diagnosing Risk Decision Situations
- 7.5 Values and Ethics
- 7.6 Systematic Decision-Making Processes
- 7.7 The Decision-Making Cycle
- 7.8 The Analytic-Deliberative Process
- 7.9 Concept Selection
- 7.10 Decision Calculus
- 7.11 Recognition-Primed Decision Making
- 7.12 Heuristics
- 7.13 Unconscious Decision Making
- 7.14 Search
- 7.15 Types of Search in Practice
- 7.16 Secretary Problem
- 7.17 Composite Decisions
- 7.18 Separation
- 7.19 Product Development Processes
- Exercises
- References
- Chapter 8: The Value of Information
-
Chapter 9: Risk Management
- 9.1 Risk Management Process
- 9.2 Potential Problem Analysis
- 9.3 Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition
- 9.4 Risk Management at NASA
- 9.5 Precursors
- 9.6 Warnings
- 9.7 Risk Communication
- 9.8 Managing The Risk of A Bad Decision
- 9.9 Learning From Failures
- 9.10 Transforming Failure Information
- Exercises
- References
-
Chapter 10: Decision-Making Systems
- 10.1 Introduction to Decision-Making Systems
- 10.2 Mechanisms of Organization Influence
- 10.3 Roles in Decision-Making Systems
- 10.4 Information Flow
- 10.5 The Structure of Decision-Making Systems
- 10.6 Product Development Organizations
- 10.7 Information Flow in Product Development
- 10.8 The Design Factory
- Exercises
- References
- Chapter 11: Modeling and Improving Decision-Making Systems
- Index
- End User License Agreement
Product information
- Title: Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management
- Author(s):
- Release date: April 2015
- Publisher(s): Wiley
- ISBN: 9781118919330
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