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Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson

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Contents

Acknowledgments

About the Author

Introduction

Part I: Methodological, Psychological, Philosophical, and Statistical Foundations

Chapter 1: Objective Rules and Their Evaluation

The Great Divide: Objective Versus Subjective Technical Analysis

TA Rules

Traditional Rules and Inverse Rules

The Use of Benchmarks in Rule Evaluation

Other Details: The Look-Ahead Bias and Trading Costs

Chapter 2: The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical Analysis

Subjective TA is Not Legitimate Knowledge

A Personal Anecdote: First A True TA Believer, Then A Skeptic

The Mind: A Natural Pattern Finder

The Epidemic of Weird Beliefs

Cognitive Psychology: Heuristics, Biases, and Illusions

Human Information Processing Limitations

Too Dang Certain: The Overconfidence BIAS

Second-Hand Information BIAS: The Power of A Good Story

Confirmation BIAS: How Existing Beliefs Filter Experience and Survive Contradicting Evidence

Illusory Correlations

Misplaced Faith in Chart Analysis

The Intuitive Judgment and The Role of Heuristics

The Representativeness Heuristic and The Illusion Trends and Patterns in Charts: Real and Fake

The Antidote To Illusory Knowledge: The Scientific Method

Chapter 3: The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis

The Most Important Knowledge of All: A Method to Get More

The Legacy of Greek Science: A Mixed Blessing

The Birth of The Scientific Revolution

Faith in Objective Reality and Objective Observations

The Nature of Scientific Knowledge

The Role of Logic In Science

The Philosophy ...

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