Chapter 3. Three-State Economy
The model is said to be complete if every contingent claim can be generated by some trading strategy. Otherwise, the model is said to be incomplete.
Stanley Pliska (1997)
Assume that an individual views the outcome of any investment in probabilistic terms; that is, he thinks of the possible results in terms of some probability distribution. In assessing the desirability of a particular investment, however, he is willing to act on the basis of only two parameters of this distribution—its expected value and standard deviation.
William Sharpe (1964)
The previous chapter is based on the most simple model economy, in which the notion of uncertainty in finance can be analyzed. This chapter enriches the two-state economy by just a single additional state while keeping the number of traded financial assets constant at two. In this slightly enriched static three-state economy, the notions of market incompleteness and indeterminacy of the martingale measure are discussed. Super-replication and approximate replication approaches are presented to cope with incompleteness and its consequences for the pricing of contingent claims. The chapter also presents the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which builds on the mean-variance portfolio analysis and adds equilibrium arguments to derive prices for financial assets in mean-volatility space even if they are not replicable.
This chapter mainly covers the following topics from finance, mathematics, and Python ...
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