Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

A.1 Framing the Case Study

Chapters 1 through 3 set the stage for the study. Chapter 1 emphasized that technical innovation is intimately entwined with social systems. Table A.1 reinforces this notion, highlighting the interplay among multiple technical and social factors throughout the analyses.

Chapter 2 aligned forecasting with a broader planning orientation. It noted that the selection of forecasting methods should address multiple factors affecting the nature and effectiveness of technological innovation. Multiple methods are almost always in order in this process.

Chapter 3 related technology management and planning orientations to managing the forecasting project. The technology forecast was emphasized as an aid to managerial or policy decision making, which implies that forecasters must focus on key issues and address them in a timely manner. The case study presented here, however, was carried out to learn about an emerging technology and to devise effective means to forecast its prospects. Thus, the urgency and precise foci of a forecast performed to inform corporate decisions are lacking. Rather, the study speaks to scholarly audiences. Nonetheless, it offers good examples of database mining and methodological applications to help forecast and assess a technology.

Chapter 4 dealt with understanding the context by depicting the TDS and stakeholder analyses, which corresponds to Steps B and D in Table A.1. The chapter also considered creatively exploring technological and ...