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5 Market efficiency and forecasting
For example, one argument (Daniel et al., 1998) is that traders have ‘biased self attribu-
tion’, meaning that they think their private information is better than it really is. As a
result they do not react fully to public news about the value of stocks, so the news takes
time to get impounded in market prices, resulting in momentum. In another argument,
traders suffer a ‘disposition effect’, implying that they tend