New Zealand government bonds are tied to economic performance of the New Zealand economy. This means that during good economic times bond prices, along with stock markets, will always rise simultaneously. Currently, economic performance is fine in New Zealand, so evaluate New Zealand dollar/U.S. dollar in this context. As stock markets rise, the bond price rises and in turn New Zealand dollar/U.S. dollar will rise. This is a long position and short when stock markets dive with bond prices
New Zealand stock markets top somewhere in the April to May period. Historically, April to August see down markets. Up and down markets for New Zealand generally means two-to-three hundred, even 400 points a month, on rare occasions.