Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making

The Anatomy of Decisions

System 1 and System 2 Thinking

The Bounds of Human Attention and Rationality

Introduction to Judgmental Heuristics

An Outline of Things to Come

Chapter 2 Overconfidence

The Mother of All Biases

Overprecision

Overestimation

Overplacement

Let's Hear it for Well-Calibrated Decision Making

Chapter 3 Common Biases

Biases Emanating from the Availability Heuristic

Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic

Biases Emanating from the Confirmation Heuristic

Integration and Commentary

Chapter 4 Bounded Awareness

Inattentional Blindness

Change Blindness

Focalism and the Focusing Illusion

Bounded Awareness in Groups

Bounded Awareness in Strategic Settings

Discussion

Chapter 5 Framing and the Reversal of Preferences

Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices

We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocertainty

Framing and The Overselling of Insurance

What's It Worth to You?

The Value We Place on What We Own

Mental Accounting

Rebate/Bonus Framing

Joint-versus-Separate Preference Reversals

Conclusion and Integration

Chapter 6 Motivational and Emotional Influences on Decision Making

When Emotion and Cognition Collide

Self-Serving Reasoning

Emotional Influences on Decision Making

Summary

Chapter 7 The Escalation of Commitment

The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm

The Competitive Escalation Paradigm

Why Does Escalation Occur?

Integration

Chapter 8 Fairness and Ethics in Decision Making

Perceptions of ...

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