Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time

Four

Hype Cycle Opportunities and Lessons

The task is not so much to see what no one yet has seen, but to think what nobody yet has thought about that which everybody sees.

—Arthur Schopenhauer, 1788–1860

WHILE IT’S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND the traps that can snare unwary adopters, it’s equally important to examine the opportunities that arise from the inevitability of the hype cycle. Anytime you can predict major shifts in behavior—such as the major turning points on the hype cycle—you can take advantage by being ahead of the crowd. If avoiding the traps are the “Hype Cycle 101” lessons, then grasping these opportunities can be viewed as the graduate course in adopting the right innovation at the right time.

We see two types of opportunity arising ...