Chapter 2. Assessing Market Potential: Estimating Market Size and Timing of Entry
Although the Internet boom grabbed all the headlines for speculative excess and managerial misjudgment in the 1990s, there was another decision-making arena in which western executives seriously underperformed—market assessment and entry decisions, particularly with regard to large emerging markets such as China. In a retrospective commentary on what it describes as an “infatuation” The Economist commented, “Few companies are stupid, but many have behaved stupidly in China.” Similarly, Harvard economist Pankaj Ghemawat reflects that “companies routinely exaggerate the attractiveness of foreign markets.” Not only have many foreign market investments proven unprofitable, ...
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