More Predictive Analytics: Microsoft Excel

6. Names, Addresses, and Formulas

In This Chapter

We Interrupt This Program...

Establishing Names for Forecasting Formulas

Using the Names in Forecasting Formulas

Deriving the Error Correction Formulas

Deriving the Formulas on the Worksheet

Named Ranges for Holt-Winters Models

Error Correction Formulas for Holt-Winters Models

When you first start learning about and using exponential smoothing, things are pretty straightforward. Yes, it might take a little study before the exponential part of exponential smoothing starts to become clear. And it’s not immediately obvious what the consequences of using an Alpha smoothing constant of zero, or of 1.0, might be.

But the basic notion of a weighted average of a forecast and an observation is not terribly ...