7. Multiplicative and Damped Trend Models

Throughout this book the approaches to smoothing have become twice as complicated with each new concept. We start out with simple exponential smoothing. Then we note that the smoothing formulas can take two equivalent forms: smoothing and error correction. When we add the notion of trend to the series, we have both stationary and trended series to deal with, and each has smoothing and error correction forms, which provide different perspectives on what’s going on in the smoothing process.

The same sort of complication occurs ...

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