2.5. Monte Carlo Forecast Model Simulation Results for Example Case
The probability equation applied in the Monte Carlo forecast model (1000 simulations) to determine the likelihood of spills was as in Eq. (2.11):
where Ps, probability of spill; Pnbe, probability of non-blowout event; Pnbs, probability of non-blowout oil spillage given event; Pbe, probability of blowout event; Pbs, probability of oil spillage given blowout event.
Probabilities of Well Spillage 
|Statistical Parameter||Spill Probability per Well|
|All Well Spills||Blowouts Only||Non-blowouts Only|