2.5. Monte Carlo Forecast Model Simulation Results for Example Case

The probability equation applied in the Monte Carlo forecast model (1000 simulations) to determine the likelihood of spills was as in Eq. (2.11):

Ps=(Pnbe·Pnbs)+(Pe·Ps)

image (2.11)

where Ps, probability of spill; Pnbe, probability of non-blowout event; Pnbs, probability of non-blowout oil spillage given event; Pbe, probability of blowout event; Pbs, probability of oil spillage given blowout event.

Table 2.10

Probabilities of Well Spillage [42]

Statistical ParameterSpill Probability per Well
All Well SpillsBlowouts OnlyNon-blowouts Only
Mean0.00190.00150.00039
Median0.00190.00150.00039
Standard ...

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