Oil Spill Science and Technology, 2nd Edition

2.5. Monte Carlo Forecast Model Simulation Results for Example Case

The probability equation applied in the Monte Carlo forecast model (1000 simulations) to determine the likelihood of spills was as in Eq. (2.11):

Ps=(Pnbe·Pnbs)+(Pe·Ps)

(2.11)

where P_s, probability of spill; P_nbe, probability of non-blowout event; P_nbs, probability of non-blowout oil spillage given event; P_be, probability of blowout event; P_bs, probability of oil spillage given blowout event.

Table 2.10

Probabilities of Well Spillage [42]

Statistical Parameter	Spill Probability per Well
	All Well Spills	Blowouts Only	Non-blowouts Only
Mean	0.0019	0.0015	0.00039
Median	0.0019	0.0015	0.00039
Standard ...