Sports and Movie Markets

Doctors and scientists predicted that breaking the four-minute mile was impossible, that one would die in the attempt. When I got up from the track after collapsing at the finish line, I figured I was dead.

—Roger Bannister, after becoming the first person to break the four-minute mile in 1952

Forget it. No Civil War picture ever made a nickel.

—MGM executive’s evaluation of a script proposal for Gone With the Wind, which went on to become, in inflation-adjusted dollars, the highest-grossing movie of all time

HOW FAR CAN we carry the idea that a group might outpredict any of its individual members, or outperform an expert? Could novice bettors at a horse racing track out-predict professional race handicappers? ...

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