There are lots of reasons to lie to pollsters, but none to make a money-losing bet.
—Tim Harford, economist
Someone should do a study on how all the American liberals are obsessively logging in to Intrade to view their electoral prediction map. Doctors are going to start prescribing it in place of Xanax, for anxiety.
—Chad Rigetti, VP of Intrade, quoting a friend during the 2008 presidential election
IF MARKETS CAN predict movie success, can they predict political success? Can they predict not only the next American president, but also the junior senator from Nebraska and what party will control Congress after the next election?
Election markets have a very long history. One of the first involved the selection of new ...