What Can Prediction Markets Replace?

If you had to identify, in one word, the reason why the human race has not achieved, and never will achieve, its full potential, that word would be “meetings.”

—Dave Barry, humorist

In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone.

—John Kenneth Galbraith, American economist

THE IDEA THAT MARKETS are the best aggregators of dispersed information runs counter to almost all our beliefs about group meetings, survey results, the role of experts, and the way organizations ought to work. Market-based business decisions are often more accurate than those provided by any other method. In part, these good results come from the virtues of markets; in part, they ...

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