Chapter 20: Basic Forecasting Techniques


Detecting Patterns Over Time

Smoothing Methods

Simple Moving Average

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Linear Exponential Smoothing (Holt’s Method)

Winters’ Method

Trend Analysis

Autoregressive Models



For much of this book, we have examined variation across individuals measured simultaneously. This chapter is devoted to variation over time, working with data tables in which columns represent a single variable measured repeatedly and rows represent regularly spaced time intervals. In many instances, time series data exhibit common, predictable patterns that we can use to make forecasts about future time periods. As we move through the chapter, we will learn several common techniques ...

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