Chapter 3
Picturing Probability: Venn Diagrams, Tree Diagrams, and Bayes’ Theorem
IN THIS CHAPTER
Organizing probability information with Venn diagrams and tree diagrams
Using diagrams to solve complex probability problems
Figuring marginal probabilities with the Law of Total Probability
Conquering multistage probabilities with Bayes’ Theorem
Probability problems can get complicated quickly — especially if you have more than one event to deal with at the same time or if the information appears to come in stages. The most complicated probability problems you come across are complicated only because of the information you’re given, compared to what you need. Two very common situations come to mind. First, you’re given the conditional probability of A given B and its related complements (see Chapter 2), as well as marginal probabilities for B and
, and you need to find the marginal probability of A. In another situation, you may be given the conditional probability for B given A and ...
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