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Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models by Alan R. Jones

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4 Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty: A holistic perspective

Perhaps the two most widely used techniques to model Risks, Opportunities and Uncertainties are Monte Carlo Simulation (Chapter 3) and the Expected Value or Risk Factoring Technique that we will worry about (literally) in Chapter 5. There are other techniques we can use alongside Monte Carlo Simulation to give us a more holistic perspective of this troublesome topic.

4.1 Top-down Approach to Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty

Whilst this section is fundamentally about Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis, some of the principles can be read across to other impacts of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty.

4.1.1 Top-down metrics

Most organisations will maintain records of past project performance ...

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