Statistical Rethinking, 2nd Edition

17    Horoscopes

Statistics courses and books—this one included—tend to resemble horoscopes. There are two senses to this resemblance. First, in order to remain plausibly correct, they must remain tremendously vague. This is because the targets of the advice, for both horoscopes and statistical advice, are diverse. But only the most general advice applies to all cases. A horoscope uses only the basic facts of birth to forecast life events, and a textbook statistical guide uses only the basic facts of measurement and design to dictate a model. It is easy to do better, once more detail is available. In the case of statistical analysis, it is typically only the scientist who can provide that detail, not the statistician.²⁴²

Second, there are ...