11. Market Signals

Is it a flashing yellow light?

Given an outlook of greater volatility and greater risk, a review of some of the signals that would have helped navigate in the past is the focus of this chapter. For instance, the Tech Bubble and its peak in March 2000, along with the financial crisis of 2008, were both preceded by a number of early warning signs. This chapter presents some classic metrics to use as market signals and to challenge prevailing assumptions about the current outlook. The metrics touch on valuation, past performance, interest rates, current market liquidity, gold, and the dollar. All these metrics can be compiled using publicly available data. They are signals that can be used for other global markets and not just ...

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