15Identifying the Highest Total Risk Problem

Progress always involves risk. You can’t steal second base and keep your foot on first.

Frederick Wilcox

15.1Estimate the Probability of Occurrence for Each Problem

Whenever you are asked to “estimate” something, you typically rely on similar past experiences that might fit into a specific condition or situation. Hopefully you may also be able to utilize data, in some form, to help you predict a potential problem. By knowing how some similar problem reacted, you usually go with your best estimate. For example, if you are comparing a similar defect, then use the same defect rate. But what if you don’t have data or even a past experience that fits this situation? What do you do then? As appalling ...

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