The Risk Premium Factor: A New Model for Understanding the Volatile Forces that Drive Stock Prices

List of Figures

Figure P.1 S&P 500 Actual vs. Predicted, 1986–February 2011 (Monthly)

Figure P.2 S&P 500 Actual vs. Predicted, 1960 to 2010

Figure 2.1 10-Year Treasury Yields, 1962 to 2011

Figure 2.2 S&P 500 P/E Actual vs. Predicted 1960 to 2010 (Annual)

Figure 2.3 S&P 500 P/E Actual vs. Predicted, 1986 to February 2011 (Monthly)

Figure 2.4 S&P 500 Actual vs. Predicted, 1960 to 2010 (Annual)

Figure 2.5 S&P 500 Actual vs. Predicted, 1986 to February 2011 (Monthly)

Figure 2.6 RPF vs. Fed Model

Figure 4.1 Actual versus Predicted during October 1987 Crash

Figure 4.2 Interest Rate Impact on October 1987 Crash

Figure 4.3 Actual versus Predicted during 2000 dot-com Bubble

Figure 4.4 NASDAQ January 1999 to May 2002

Figure 4.5 Dot-com Bubble Close Up

Figure 4.6 Actual versus Predicted and Rf (Monthly) during 2008 to 2009 Meltdown

Figure 4.7 Actual versus Predicted (Daily) during 2008 to 2009 Meltdown

Figure 6.1 Real Implied Growth Rate (RIGR) Distribution (October 7, 2010)

Figure 6.2 S&P 500 RIGR Distribution (October 7, 2010)

Figure 6.3 S&P 500 RIGR Distribution (December 31, 2010)

Figure 9.1 Value of U.S. Construction Put in Place (Constant 2000 Dollars)

Figure 10.1 S&P 500 Annual Earnings (1871 to 2010)

Figure 11.1 Predicted and Actual Converge—Late 2010 through Early 2011

Figure C.1 S&P Historical Average (Actual vs. Predicted), Y/E Data 1960 to 2009

Figure C.2 S&P Historical P/E (Actual vs. Predicted), Y/E Data 1960 to 2009

Figure D.1 S&P 500 Index (Actual vs. Predicted) Month-End ...