Weak Signals for Strategic Intelligence: Anticipation Tool for Managers

Chapter 2

Detecting, Recognizing and Corroborating a Weak Signal: Applications

We now reach the chapters of this book that are devoted to applications and the presentation of working methods, also referred to as “actionable knowledge”, providing answers to “how-to” questions. Chapter 2 answers the questions: “How to recognize that a raw data item is a possible weak signal?” and “How to make a weak signal reliable?”

For each of the applications presented, we indicate: why we recognize the data item as a weak signal, then the approach through which we come to regard the latter as being an early warning sign.

Some of the examples derive from data collected in the field, others from raw digital data researched on the Internet. We put ourselves in a situation where each weak signal is processed separately, by a single person using his/her individual intelligence. We then present methods intended, as and when a weak signal is recognized as such, for making it reliable.

2.1. Recognition of a weak signal: examples

2.1.1. A lady heading up the purchasing function at a car equipment manufacturer? How bizarre!

2.1.1.1. Context

The scene is set in the office of Maurice, marketing director of an industrial company within the automotive sector. This company is a tier-2 equipment manufacturer, which means its own clients are larger manufacturers, called tier-1 equipment manufacturers, such as Valeo.

On that day, in the economics page of his favorite newspaper, which typically numbers about 40 ...